As the weather is getting colder, the AFC Playoff race is heating up. With six games remaining and on a much-needed bye week, the Bengals remain in the fight.
Currently the 10th seed in the AFC, The New York Times projects Cincinnati with a 13% chance to make the playoffs, as does ESPN. The Athletic, meanwhile, has the Bengals with an 18% chance to get to the postseason, and NFL.com gives Cincinnati a 12% chance at the playoffs.
The path is clear: Win, and you're probably in.
If the Bengals can win their remaining six games, they have a 94% chance to make the playoffs. Per The Athletic, Cincinnati is favored in five of the team's last six games as of this writing, with the lone exception being Week 18 in Pittsburgh. A loss to any of the following opponents would significantly decrease postseason chances varying amounts depending on the game.
The Athletic gives Cincy a 63% chance to win in Week 13 against those same Steelers at home.
Then, the Bengals head to Dallas for Monday Night Football as 7.5-point favorites over a Cowboys team led by backup quarterback Cooper Rush. Cincinnati will then travel to Nashville as 5.5-point favorites over the 2-8 Titans.
A return home against the 2-8 Browns sees the Bengals as eight-point favorites. Weeks 17 and 18 will be against two playoff contenders: The Denver Broncos and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Athletic currently projects the Bengals with a 58% chance to beat the 6-5 Broncos at Paycor Stadium in a game with potentially large AFC Wild Card implications. A win in Week 17 could set up a do-or-die game at Pittsburgh in Week 18. Currently, the Bengals are one-point underdogs in that game.
Cincinnati has gone on runs to end the season in the past. Notably, the 2022 Bengals started 5-4 but came out of the bye red hot, not losing another game until the AFC Championship.
"I can see that something special can still be there," head coach Zac Taylor said after the loss to the Chargers. "People may not believe it. That's okay, I get that. But I've seen this group do some really good things before and I still believe that we can get this thing turned around and do that."
With Cincinnati on bye this week, Who Dey Nation should have their eyes on some key matchups in Week 12.
The Raiders play the Broncos (currently the seventh seed in the playoffs), the Patriots play the Dolphins (current ninth seed), the Lions play the Colts (current eighth seed) and the Browns play the Steelers (current third seed). If the Raiders, Patriots, Lions and Browns all win, the Bengals playoff odds balloon up to 23%. If they all lose, they shrink to 8%.
"Bye week, get healthy, and then come back and we've got a huge divisional game at home," Taylor said. "We've got to find a way to create some momentum for ourselves."
